You've probably spent time in the past evaluating betting systems and horse racing tipsters to decide whether a system is worth buying, or the tipster is worth following. For me, when I'm trying to decide if a series of selections are worth betting on, I like to include Return On Investment, bottom line Profit, and Win Strike Rate in my analysis.
What do I look for in my selections?
The first task I undertake is to examine the profit levels. We should be sorting then evaluating the most profitable selections first. It's only when we have the most profitable selections to hand that we then move on to assess the ROI and strike rate.
Low strike rate selections can make very good profits. By low strike rate I mean anything less than 10%. However, low strike rate and long, painful losing runs often go hand in hand. A continuing run of losing bets can be stressful, and it's natural that most find it difficult to stomach. You start to lose confidence and get more and more concerned as the days go by without a winner.
Therefore I would encourage you to put aside any methods or strategies with a success rate of less than 10%
But note I didn't say discard such systems - just put them aside for the time-being - you can always bring them into your betting portfolio once you're more immune to losing runs.
The higher the strike rate then the better our selections. That's logical. A higher strike rate suggests we are more accurate in our prediction of the winner. However, usually you will experience a lower profit figure, the higher the strike rate. So this is when we also become interested in ROI.
When we calculate the ROI we can see where we are making more money per bet struck.
This is what I have found from past experience....
1. High profits, linked with a low strike rate, low ROI and a large number of selections
2. Medium profits, linked to a medium strike rate, medium ROI and medium number of selections
3. Lower profits, linked to a higher strike rate, high ROI and a smaller number of qualifying selections
Your betting temperament will dictate which methods you are drawn to, and which betting systems suit you best. The majority of punters will choose #1 but in reality your average horse racing enthusiast is only prepared psychologically for #3.
It's important you're aware of how you react in the face of a protracted losing spell. Are you happy to see just one winner for every ten bets placed? Or would you be more comfortable sacrificing some profit to win three out of every ten?
To answer this question I would suggest that you first ask yourself ‘Am I already seeing good returns and profits from my betting?’
If the answer is 'Yes' then you may be ready to proceed to #2 or #1.
If you're relatively new to betting, or perhaps you've struggled before to make consistent profits, then my advice for now would be that you look for selections that have a high ROI and high strike rate with less selections.
This will help you on your path to betting success. Losing streaks will be shorter, it will be easier to place the bets, and you should find it easier to maintain your condidence and discipline.
When it comes to being a successful punter it's not just about the profits. It is about having the mental toughness to cope with the losing runs without losing your bottle. Start by accepting they do happen, and regularly. Then acclimatise yourself gently by taking less profits, and then build up slowly. If you can get comfortable with #3 selections then it will not be too long before you're emotionally prepared to start betting on #2 selections.
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