Have you been trying to make a profit by betting on horse racing? It really doesn't make much difference whether you're betting on the Group 1 classics or point-to-point, flat racing or National Hunt jumps races, turf or the all-weather, it is all but impossible to make a significant amount of money by rating horse races. I'm sure if you've been trying to make money playing against the bookmakers then you know what I mean. Thousands of punters spend a lot of time and effort trying to beat the races every day.
There is the school of thought that suggests that the game of betting is all about finding winners. They summize that if you can just pick enough winners, then you'll surely make a profit. The thing is, nothing could be further from the truth. Unless of course you're able to highlight the winner of each and every single race that you analyze. And seriously, that just isn't about to happen any time soon.
Earning a living from punting is a matter of understanding probability.
Two questions matter most: What is the likelihood the horse will win? What is the return if it does win? This is what matters. For sure, you have to exercise your skill to calculate, or rather estimate, the horse's chances. But you must also have a firm grasp of the money angles. The first part of the game is about race rating, and part two, which is equally as important, is in deciding whether or not a bet is a good bet or a bad bet.
A race rating system involves evaluating the horses. Whereas a betting system is much more to do with evaluating the actual bet itself, and assessing whether it offers 'value'. In other words, do you think the odds are in your favour?
Whilst a race rating system should return a profit just as long as you employ prudent money management strategies and know when to use it, and when to use a different system, a betting system only looks at the actual probability and the payoff.
For example, a punter who uses such a system may be of the opinion that a horse offered at odds of 2/1 only has a 25% chance of winning. Or conversely, perhaps a horse at 10/1 has a realistic 20% chance of winning. This punter may shop around the bookmakers or betting exchanges to see if he can secure a bet at odds higher than the actual probability suggests.
That's an example of a betting system. The punter doesn't have to rate the race, and he may not even be aware of the horses' names, or the jockeys riding. If the betting system is based upon statistics, it should work. But statistics and trends are by their nature transient. They do change and are limited in their accuracy to predict the future within a range of numbers. That is why no system will win every time, be it a betting system or a race rating methodology.
The race rating method, however, will usually rely more upon judgment by the user. Whereas a betting system will often be mechanical in nature, with rigid rules and filters.
The success depends entirely on the punter and his skill, experience, and judgment of when to employ the system. In the long run, betting systems, because they address the fundamental question of profitability, tend to be more profitable.
If you want to learn more about betting systems that work you'll find explanations of various race rating methods, as well as betting systems, at the horse racing and betting systems blog SkyBlueKangaroo.com
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